COVID-19 Deaths as compared to other causes of Death (US Only) Week 6 Week update

Below is weekly and annual comparison data from 4/4/2020 - 4/10/2020 @ 1:54 PM PST 4/11/2020
Note: Averages have a *; Comparative Analysis and Pneumonia are highlighted in blue; COVID-19 is highlighted in Yellow

Weekly

Annual

Analysis, Benchmarks, and Factor Analysis

As of the end of Week 5:

• COVID is around 7.1 times more deadly than the High Flu peak weekly deaths benchmark 
• COVID is the 3rd most prevalent form of death in the US based on averaged benchmarks
• COVID deaths have increased by around a factor of 2 since Week 5

Factor Analysis - below is a 'factor' analysis for COVID annual deaths versus benchmarks.  

Numbers which COVID does not exceed will be presented as X%.  This denotes that the COVID mortality rate equals X% of the higher number.

Numbers that COVID does exceed will be presented as N.  This denotes that the COVID mortality rate is N times higher than the benchmark number.  A one (1) means that the numbers are equal, a two (2) that COVID is twice as deadly on an annual basis, etc.

All numbers are rounded to the nearest decimal.

Factor Analysis

Other info

Variability

Just a quick note on variability.  The numbers presented here are for the nation as a whole; however, diving into specific state by state data will show vastly different situations.  For example, for folks in New York, COVID is most likely the number one cause of death currently; however, for someone in Wyoming it may not even been registering on the list.

So far, 66% of deaths are occurring in five states (in order):

• New York (7,844 | 42%)
• New Jersey (1,932 | 10%)
• Michigan (1,281 | 7%)
• Louisiana (755 | 4%)
• Massachusetts (599 | 3%)

Over time New York's share will naturally lower as other states reach their peaks.  In particular, Louisiana, Georgia, and Florida have seen large increases.  I expect the numbers above to flatten or recede in the coming weeks; however, the make-up of where those numbers are coming will be changing and a overall lowering may be some time off.  This may become a regular part of the site if I believe that the variability is an important metric to report on.

To be clear though, this is site is for comparison only and as such will not go into projections.

Future Updates

Now that the 'peak' has been reached for COVID in the US I will be converting this to a weekly updated site.  I believe there is still value in producing this; however, the need to show status updates on a bi-weekly basis has receded.  If, for whatever reason, COVID continues to spike in the US and/or spikes in the future, I will bring the bi-weekly updates back.

The next update will be by 6 pm PST on 4/18/2020.