Saturday, April 18, 2020

COVID-19 Deaths as compared to other causes of Death (US Only) Week 7 Week update

Below is weekly and annual comparison data from 4/11/2020 - 4/17/2020 @ 12:40 PM PST 4/18/2020
Note: Averages have a *; Comparative Analysis and Pneumonia are highlighted in blue; COVID-19 is highlighted in Yellow


Weekly



Annual



Analysis, Benchmarks, and Factor Analysis

As of the end of Week 7:
  • COVID is around 9 times more deadly than the High Flu peak weekly deaths benchmark 
  • COVID is the most prevalent form of death in the US based on averaged benchmarks
  • COVID deaths have increased by a factor of 1.3
  • COVID deaths exceed the number of annual deaths for the benchmarked Low-Moderate and Moderate Flu and average annual deaths due to Car Accidents. 
Factor Analysis - below is a 'factor' analysis for COVID annual deaths versus benchmarks.  

Numbers which COVID does not exceed will be presented as X%.  This denotes that the COVID mortality rate equals X% of the higher number.

Numbers that COVID does exceed will be presented as N.  This denotes that the COVID mortality rate is N times higher than the benchmark number.  A one (1) means that the numbers are equal, a two (2) that COVID is twice as deadly on an annual basis, etc.

All numbers are rounded to the nearest decimal.

Factor Analysis





Other info

Annual Increase Corrections and Transparency 

New York and several other jurisdictions have started revising previous numbers of reported deaths.  My data source is not able to dis-aggregate by date so just added them to 'one' date this week.  That would unfairly skew this weeks numbers.  The site stated that future adjustments would occur like this but be called out.

As such additional reported deaths that occur in large 'batches' will be added to the annual number only to prevent weekly numbers from being skewed.

For transparency I will start include a running list of adjustments made to the annual total and the rational. If I am unable to match the stated annual number at the time of post (usually due to one of these mass adds or older updates) I will make a 'reconcile' to match and notate in the chart.

Please note that numbers will continue to be adjusted as corrections come in.  Unless it is the current week of, all adjustments will be made to the annual total only.  That said, I may start making the underlying data tables available at a later date.

As a result, please treat the 'weekly' totals as preliminary and the 'annual' totals as the current estimate.

Corrections Chart



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